How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Ponte Preta (Draw No Bet) 68%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Ponte Preta and 0.9 from Náutico PE, so Ponte Preta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ponte Preta come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ponte Preta (Draw No Bet). Ponte Preta are favoured here (xG 1.5-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Ponte Preta defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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