What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Sport Recife and 0.9 from Fortaleza, so Sport Recife come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Sport Recife or Draw. This covers Sport Recife or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Fortaleza have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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