Vila Nova v Novorizontino prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.1 goals from Vila Nova and 1.1 from Novorizontino, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Novorizontino come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Novorizontino or Draw. This covers Novorizontino or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.