What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Botafogo RJ and 0.8 from CA Paranaense PR, so Botafogo RJ come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Botafogo RJ to win. Botafogo RJ are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.8), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for CA Paranaense PR to spoil this. We make it about 64%: a lean, not a lock.
