How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 58%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Coritiba and 1.0 from Corinthians, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.2-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 60%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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