What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Chapecoense-SC and 1.6 from Fluminense, so Fluminense come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Chapecoense-SC come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Fluminense to win. Fluminense shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.6), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.82, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Fluminense have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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