What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Coritiba and 1.3 from Gremio, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gremio come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Coritiba or Draw. This covers Coritiba or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Gremio have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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