What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Santos and 1.3 from Cruzeiro, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.3-1.3) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 54%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. We make it about 54% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
