How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Flamengo RJ and 0.6 from Corinthians, so Flamengo RJ come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Flamengo RJ come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.9-0.7), and two is enough to land it, landing about 72% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Flamengo RJ have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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