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Football/Brasileirão Série A/Sao Paulo v Vasco
Brasileirão Série A · Estádio do Morumbi

Sao Paulo v Vasco prediction

Sao Paulo crestSao PauloWLWLL
v
Vasco crestVasco14th of 20 · 34 ptsWWWWW

What to expect

We expect about 1.6 goals from Sao Paulo and 0.9 from Vasco, so Sao Paulo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Sao Paulo come into this on two straight defeats. Vasco come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Sao Paulo to score. This is about Sao Paulo's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.6 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 79%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.

What the numbers say
✓Sao Paulo have won two of their last five.
✓Vasco are unbeaten in their last five — five wins and no draws.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

18 Apr 2026Vasco 2 - 1 Sao Paulo
2 Nov 2025Vasco 0 - 2 Sao Paulo
13 Jun 2025Sao Paulo 1 - 3 Vasco
17 Oct 2024Sao Paulo 3 - 0 Vasco
23 Jun 2024Vasco 4 - 1 Sao Paulo
Vasco have won three of the last five meetings.

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More Brasileirão Série A fixtures

Full fixture list
Vasco crestVascovRemoRemo crest★★★★★
Vasco are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.1), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
Match outlookVasco to win · 1.32Share
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