How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Arda Kardzhali (Draw No Bet) 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Arda Kardzhali and 0.9 from Botev Plovdiv, so Arda Kardzhali come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Arda Kardzhali (Draw No Bet). Arda Kardzhali are favoured here (xG 1.5-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Arda Kardzhali defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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