Septemvri Sofia v Botev Vratsa: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Septemvri Sofia to win 39%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Septemvri Sofia host Botev Vratsa at home in the Parva Liga on 4 September. Septemvri sit sixth out of fourteen with eight points from seven games and a –5 goal difference. They are just inside the European-qualification zone, one spot above Arda Kardzhali and one above Spartak Varna, who share the same points. Botev Vratsa are down at eleventh, also on four points from seven games but with a –11 goal difference. They sit in the relegation zone, level on points with both Cherno More Varna above them and Dunav Ruse below. Both clubs are close on the simple goal numbers we have – 1.2 for Septemvri and 1.1 for Vratsa – so the match could be tight, but a win for the home side would push them a step nearer to Europe while a loss would deepen Vratsa’s fight for survival.

Septemvri’s recent form has been mixed. They opened the campaign with a 2-0 defeat to CSKA Sofia, then earned a 1-1 draw against Botev Plovdiv. After that they lost 3-1 at home to Ludogorets and were beaten 2-0 by Levski Sofia. Their most recent game was a 1-1 stalemate with Lokomotiv Plovdiv. In total they have scored five goals and let in six in their last five matches. The run shows they can find the net but also that they concede regularly, leaving them vulnerable if they slip.

Botev Vratsa have struggled to find consistency. They began with a 4-1 loss to Kilmarnock, followed by a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Celtic. Their next two fixtures were a 2-2 draw with Pirin Blagoevgrad and a narrow 1-0 loss to Etar Veliko Tarnovo. Their latest outing was a 2-1 defeat to Slavia Sofia, where they managed to score but could not keep the lead. Across those five games they have scored five goals while conceding ten, highlighting a porous defence that has been hard to shut out.

The two clubs have met before, but the record is not provided, so we cannot draw on any head-to-head history. Given the similar goal numbers and the fact that both sides have been conceding, the match is likely to be a low-scoring affair with chances for either side to take the lead. Septemvri’s home advantage and slightly better recent points tally suggest they may be the more settled team, while Vratsa will be desperate to pick up points to move out of the drop zone.

We back Septemvri Sofia to win. The price of 2.60 matches our own view of the game. Our chance of this result is about 39 %. Septemvri are the stronger side on the simple numbers, and a win looks cleaner than chasing a bigger price elsewhere. For the pick to go wrong, Vratsa would need to tighten up defensively and score early, putting Septemvri under pressure. If Vratsa manage to keep a clean sheet and snatch a goal, the result could swing the other way. Otherwise, we expect the home side to edge it.