How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made CSKA Sofia to win 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Spartak Varna and 1.9 from CSKA Sofia, so CSKA Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
CSKA Sofia come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: CSKA Sofia to win. CSKA Sofia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.9), and we make them about 68% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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