How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Levski Sofia to win 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Botev Vratsa and 1.9 from Levski Sofia, so Levski Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Levski Sofia come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Levski Sofia to win. Levski Sofia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.9), and we make them about 73% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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