Botev Plovdiv v Lokomotiv Plovdiv: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Botev Plovdiv to win 46%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from Botev Plovdiv and 1.0 from Lokomotiv Plovdiv, so Botev Plovdiv come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Botev Plovdiv to win. Botev Plovdiv are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.0), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.