How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made CSKA Sofia to win 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from CSKA Sofia and 0.8 from Arda Kardzhali, so CSKA Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CSKA Sofia to win. CSKA Sofia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.8), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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