How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Levski Sofia to win 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Cherno More Varna and 1.4 from Levski Sofia, so Levski Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Cherno More Varna come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Levski Sofia to win. Levski Sofia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.4), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Levski Sofia have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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