How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Cherno More Varna to win 51%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Cherno More Varna and 1.0 from PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929, so Cherno More Varna come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Cherno More Varna to win. Cherno More Varna are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.0), and we make them about 53% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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