What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Augsburg and 1.5 from Mainz, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Mainz come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.6-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 64%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Mainz have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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