What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Mainz and 2.6 from Bayern Munich, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Mainz come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Bayern Munich to win. Bayern Munich shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-2.6), and we make them about 77% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Bayern Munich have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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