What to expect
We expect about 3.8 goals from Bayern Munich and 0.9 from Union Berlin, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Bayern Munich to win. Bayern Munich are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.8-0.9), and we make them about 90% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 89 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.09, which works out at about 92 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
