How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Dortmund to win 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The numbers show Dortmund clearly as the stronger side. They are expected to score about 2.2 goals while Hamburg average just under one. That gap points to an open game with chances at both ends, but Dortmund should have the edge.
Looking back, Dortmund have won three of their last five league games and lost two, while Hamburg have taken two wins, one draw and two defeats in the same span. In their last two meetings, Dortmund have one win and one draw, with an average of 3.5 goals per game. The most recent clash ended 3-2 to Dortmund in March, suggesting both teams can find the net.
Our pick is Dortmund to win. The expected goal difference and the recent head-to-head record give us a 74 % chance of success. The price of 1.35 matches our view of the game, so it looks like a sensible choice.
For this to go wrong, Hamburg would need to keep the game very tight and stop Dortmund from scoring twice. A low-scoring draw or a surprise win for Hamburg would be required. We still feel fairly confident in our view, but we know football can be unpredictable.
Recent meetings
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