What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from FC Koln and 1.8 from Hoffenheim, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
FC Koln come into this on two straight defeats. Hoffenheim come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Hoffenheim to win. Hoffenheim shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.8), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.39, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
FC Koln only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 44%, so it's far from a lock.
