How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks very even. Both sides are expected to score around 1.7-1.8 goals, so the total is about 3.5. There is almost nothing separating them on those numbers. That points to an open game with chances at both ends rather than a tight, low-scoring affair.
Koln have not been winning lately – five league games gave them no wins, two draws and three losses, and they come in on two straight defeats. Hoffenheim, by contrast, have taken three wins, one draw and only one loss in their last five. In the head-to-head record the last five meetings produced two Koln wins, one Hoffenheim win and two draws, with an average of three goals per game. The most recent encounter ended 2-2, showing both teams can find the net against each other.
We pick both teams to score. Both sides have enough attacking threat to get a goal, and the 65 % chance we assign to this outcome matches the price we see. The price of 1.50 sits close to our own reading of the match, so we think it is a sensible bet.
For the pick to fail, one side would have to keep a clean sheet. That would require a strong defensive display from either Koln or Hoffenheim, which looks unlikely given the recent goal-rich meetings. We hold our view fairly strongly, but we know football can be unpredictable.
Recent meetings
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