How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Union Berlin look a little stronger on paper. Their recent run of three wins in a row shows they have a bite, while Ein Frankfurt have not won any of their last five league games. The goal expectations are almost identical – about 1.6 each – so the match should be fairly even. With both sides likely to push forward, we expect an open game with chances at both ends.
Looking back, the two clubs have met five times recently. Union Berlin have won two of those, Frankfurt none, and three games ended in a draw. Those meetings produced an average of 2.8 goals, and the last encounter was a 1-1 draw in February. The pattern suggests both teams can find the net and that tight, but goal-filled games are common when they meet.
Our pick is that both teams will score. Each side averages around 1.6 goals, and the 64% chance we give this outcome feels right. The price of 1.54 matches our view of the game, so it looks like a sensible offer.
For the bet to go wrong, either side would need to keep a clean sheet. That could happen if Frankfurt tighten up defensively or Union Berlin struggle to break through. We are fairly confident in our view, but a single defensive lapse could flip the result.
Recent meetings
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