Freiburg v Bayern Munich prediction

Freiburg1st of 18 · 13 ptsWWDWW

What to expect

We expect about 1.2 goals from Freiburg and 2.5 from Bayern Munich, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Freiburg come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Bayern Munich to win. Bayern Munich shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-2.5), and we make them about 73% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.

What the numbers say

✓Freiburg are unbeaten in their last five — four wins and one draw.

✓Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last five — four wins and one draw.

✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.

✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

4 Apr 2026Freiburg 2 - 3 Bayern Munich

22 Nov 2025Bayern Munich 6 - 2 Freiburg

25 Jan 2025Freiburg 1 - 2 Bayern Munich

1 Sept 2024Bayern Munich 2 - 0 Freiburg

1 Mar 2024Freiburg 2 - 2 Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.

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