What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Hamburg and 2.9 from Bayern Munich, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Hamburg come into this on two straight defeats. Bayern Munich come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Bayern Munich to win. Bayern Munich shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.9), and we make them about 84% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Bayern Munich have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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