How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Both teams to score 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Leverkusen and 1.5 from RB Leipzig, so Leverkusen come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
RB Leipzig come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 2.0-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 70%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Leverkusen have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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