How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Schalke 04 to score 2 or fewer 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Schalke 04 and 1.7 from Elversberg, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Schalke 04 to score 2 or fewer. This is about Schalke 04's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.6 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Schalke 04 have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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