What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from M'gladbach and 2.0 from Dortmund, so Dortmund come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.2 goals between the two (xG 1.3-2.0), landing about 62% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Dortmund have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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