What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Mainz and 1.1 from Union Berlin, so Mainz come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Mainz come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 56%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Union Berlin have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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