What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from SV 07 Elversberg and 3.3 from Bayern Munich, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Bayern Munich to win. Bayern Munich shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-3.3), and we make them about 86% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 86 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn SV 07 Elversberg a draw or better. We make it about 86% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
