How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Leverkusen to win 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Leverkusen and 1.1 from Union Berlin, so Leverkusen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Leverkusen to win. Leverkusen are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-1.1), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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