How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Cavalry FC to win 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Cavalry FC and 0.8 from Vancouver FC, so Cavalry FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Cavalry FC to win. Cavalry FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.9), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Cavalry FC have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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