What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Dortmund and 1.1 from Villarreal, so Dortmund come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Dortmund come into this on five straight wins. Villarreal come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Dortmund to win. Dortmund are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.2), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.84, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
