How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Club Brugge to win 44%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Club Brugge and 1.7 from Aston Villa, so Club Brugge come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Club Brugge to win. Club Brugge are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.7), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.71, which works out at about 37 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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