What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Porto and 0.9 from Napoli, so Porto come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Porto come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Porto to win. Porto are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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