Blackburn v Sheffield United: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 54%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Blackburn host Sheffield United at Ewood Park on 8 September. Blackburn sit 18th in the 24-team Championship, five points from six games and just two places above the relegation zone. They are three points clear of Portsmouth and level with Lincoln City. Sheffield United sit comfortably in ninth, also on six games, with nine points and a neutral goal difference. They sit one place below Millwall and one above Wolverhampton Wanderers. Both clubs are looking for points, but the stakes differ: Blackburn need to pull away from the drop, while United aim to keep their push for a top-half finish alive.

Blackburn’s recent form has been uneven. In their last eight matches they have won two, drawn three and lost three. The most recent result was a 2-1 defeat away at Preston, followed by a goalless draw at Lincoln, a 2-1 loss at home to QPR, a 2-1 home win over Middlesbrough, a 2-2 draw away at Wolves and a 1-0 home loss to Leicester. That means they have gone three games without a win. In those eight games they have scored ten and conceded ten, kept only one clean sheet and have failed to find the net twice. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides have scored in six of them. Their last four home outings produced one win, one draw and two defeats.

Sheffield United have also been inconsistent. Over their last eight games they have recorded two wins, three draws and three defeats. The latest results are a 1-0 home loss to Leicester, a 3-1 home loss to Norwich, a 3-2 home win over Bolton, a 2-2 away draw with Cardiff, a 0-0 away draw with Swansea and a 0-0 home draw with Birmingham. They arrive on the back of two straight defeats, but their recent road form is unbeaten with one win and two draws in the last three away games. In the eight-game stretch they have scored ten and let in twelve, kept two clean sheets and have been shut out three times. Five of those matches produced three or more goals and both teams have scored in five of them.

When the two clubs meet, the games are usually open and produce goals. In the last five meetings each side has won twice and one match ended in a draw, with an average of 2.6 goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 3-1 victory for Blackburn at Sheffield United on 22 April. Given the similar goal expectations – roughly 1.1 for Blackburn and 1.2 for United – a game with both sides finding the net is likely. The pattern of both teams scoring in the majority of their recent fixtures supports this view.

Our pick is both teams to score. The price of 1.72 is shorter than we feel the game deserves, which makes it attractive. We see a 54 % chance of both sides hitting the net, based on their recent scoring rates and the history of high-scoring meetings. For the bet to fail, one side would have to keep a clean sheet, which would require a very tight defensive display that neither team has shown lately. We think the odds are generous for a result that fits the evidence.