What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Cardiff and 1.1 from Stoke, so Cardiff come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 53%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Cardiff have not won any of their last five.
✓Stoke have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
12 Apr 2025Cardiff 0 - 1 Stoke
14 Dec 2024Stoke 2 - 2 Cardiff
24 Feb 2024Cardiff 2 - 1 Stoke
4 Nov 2023Stoke 0 - 0 Cardiff
22 Apr 2023Cardiff 1 - 1 Stoke
