Cardiff v Stoke: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 60%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Cardiff host Stoke at the weekend in the Championship. Cardiff sit 20th out of 24 with four points from six games and a goal difference of minus three. They are just one point behind Lincoln City and one point ahead of Derby County. Stoke sit 15th with seven points from six games and a goal difference of minus one, level on points with Birmingham City above them and a point clear of Norwich City below. Both clubs are fighting to move away from the lower half of the table, and a win will give each a small but important lift.

Cardiff have played eight games in their recent run, winning two, drawing three and losing three. The most recent results are a 2-0 loss to Portsmouth away, a 2-1 defeat to QPR away, a 2-2 draw with Sheffield United at home, a 2-2 draw with Derby away, a 1-1 draw with Wrexham at home and a 5-4 loss to Mansfield away. In those eight matches they have scored 16 goals and let in 15. They kept one clean sheet and failed to score in one game. Five of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in six of them. At home in the last four games they have not lost, recording two wins and two draws.

Stoke’s last eight fixtures have been far less balanced. They have won two and lost six, with no draws. Their newest results are a 4-0 home win over Charlton, a 1-0 victory against Norwich at home, a 4-1 loss to Wolves away, a 3-1 defeat to Southampton away, a 2-1 loss to Swansea at home and a 2-0 loss to Bristol City away. Over those eight games Stoke have scored ten and conceded 17. They kept two clean sheets and were shut out once. Six of the games produced three or more goals and both teams scored in five of them. Their last three away games have all ended in defeat, but they arrive on the back of two straight wins.

The two clubs have met five times before. Each side has won once and three matches have ended in draws, giving an average of two goals per encounter. The most recent meeting was a 0-1 win for Stoke at Cardiff on 12 April 2025. That low-scoring result suggests a tight game, but the broader history shows plenty of matches with goals on both ends. Given the recent form of both teams, we expect another encounter where each side can find the net.

Our pick is for both teams to score. Cardiff average 1.4 goals and Stoke 1.1 in this match, and we think there is a 60 % chance this will happen. The price of 1.54 is shorter than our reading, so it looks attractive. For the pick to fail, both sides would need to keep a clean sheet – something that has happened only once in Cardiff’s recent eight games and once in Stoke’s eight. If either team manages to score, the bet should succeed.