Bolton v Stoke: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Bolton to score 80%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.6 goals from Bolton and 1.4 from Stoke, so Bolton come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Bolton come into this on two straight wins. Stoke come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Bolton to score. This is about Bolton's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.6 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 80%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.