What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Burnley and 1.0 from Bristol City, so Burnley come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Burnley come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Correct score 1-0. This is our most likely exact scoreline for the game (xG 1.7-0.7). Correct score is a long shot by nature, so treat it as a small-stakes punt rather than a banker.
We put the chance of that landing at about 15 out of 100. The price on offer is 7.30, which works out at about 14 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Correct score is unforgiving: the right winner but the wrong number still loses. We make it about 15% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
