What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Millwall and 0.8 from Bolton, so Millwall come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.3-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 59%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. We only make this about 59%, so it's far from a lock.
