Derby v Swansea: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Both teams to score 53%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Derby look a little stronger than Swansea on paper. The goal expectations are 1.4 for Derby and 1.1 for Swansea, so we expect a modest amount of scoring overall – around two to three goals in the match. The numbers suggest the game could be open enough for chances at both ends, rather than a tight defensive battle.

Both sides have shown they can find the net in recent games, with each averaging just over a goal per match. When they have met before, the matches have usually produced goals on both sides. That pattern fits the current expectations and hints that a goal for each team is a realistic outcome.

We pick both teams to score. Each side has enough attacking threat – about 1.4 goals for Derby and 1.1 for Swansea – to get on the scoresheet. The chance of this happening sits at roughly 53 %. The price of 1.88 matches our view of the game, so we think it is a fair offer.

For the pick to fail, one side would need to keep a clean sheet. That could happen if a defense steps up or the attack stalls. We feel fairly confident in our view, but we recognise a shut-out would overturn the bet. Our belief is solid, though not unbreakable.

Recent meetings