What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Derby and 1.2 from Swansea, so Derby come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.2), and we make both teams to score about 54%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.81, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
If one attack goes missing for the night, both teams scoring falls flat. We make it about 54% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
