How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Middlesbrough look the stronger side in this Championship clash. Our goal expectations are 1.5 for Middlesbrough and 1.0 for West Brom, so the game should stay tight. Both teams are likely to keep things close and not open up too much.
Recent games have shown a low-scoring pattern when these clubs meet. The numbers we have point to about 2.4 goals in total, roughly 1.5 for Middlesbrough and 0.9 for West Brom. That history suggests the match will stay restrained rather than explode into many goals.
We are picking the Under 3.5 goals. The price is 1.41, which is longer than what we see in the game, so it looks attractive. With a 75 % chance of staying under that total, the pick fits the cagey feel we expect. Clear chances should be rare, making the lower total the most likely outcome.
For this to go wrong, the game would need to open up and produce four or more goals. That would require both sides to attack heavily and miss the usual caution. We feel fairly confident in our view, holding it strongly because the numbers and the expected style both point to a modest goal tally.
Recent meetings
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