How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Derby to score 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Derby and 1.2 from Wrexham, so Derby come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Derby to score. This is about Derby's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Wrexham have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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