Middlesbrough v Wolves: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Wolves to score 73%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Middlesbrough host Wolves at home in the Championship on 10 October. Both clubs sit in the league’s European-qualification places. Middlesbrough sit third with 15 points from eight games, a single point ahead of West Ham and one point above Wolves, who are fourth with 14 points from seven games. The gap between the two is tiny, and a win for either side will tighten the race for the top spots. The match also matters for Wolves because a positive result will keep them level with Queens Park Rangers, who sit just below them.

Middlesbrough have been steady in their last eight outings, winning four, drawing three and losing once. Their most recent fixtures were a 2-2 draw away at Birmingham, a 2-2 draw at home to Millwall, a 4-3 home win over Norwich, a 1-0 away victory at QPR, a 1-1 draw away at Burnley and a 3-1 home win over West Brom. That run has produced 16 goals for and 12 against, with only one clean sheet. At home they have been especially strong, winning three of their last four games and drawing the other. Seven of those eight matches have seen both sides score, and six have produced three or more goals.

Wolves have mirrored that form, also recording four wins, three draws and one loss in their last eight games. Their recent results include a 1-0 home win over West Brom, a 1-0 away victory at Sheffield United, a 2-2 draw away at Birmingham, a 4-2 defeat away at West Ham, a 4-1 home win over Stoke and a 3-1 away win at Preston. They arrive on the back of two straight wins and have scored 16 while conceding 11 in the same eight-match window. On the road they have been solid, with two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five away games and two clean sheets. Their last match was played 20 days ago.

The two clubs have met before, and those meetings have usually been open affairs with goals on both sides. In the recent eight-game stretch each side has been involved in games where both teams scored, and the majority of matches have featured three or more goals. That pattern suggests we can expect another lively contest, with chances for both sides to find the net. Middlesbrough look slightly stronger on paper, but Wolves have shown they can score against quality opposition.

Our pick is Wolves to score. The chance of them finding the net is about 73 per cent, which is higher than the price of 1.29 suggests. The price is shorter than our own reading, so it looks attractive. For the bet to fail, Wolves would need to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from Middlesbrough and perhaps a lack of cutting edge from Wolves. As long as the game stays open, the odds are in our favour.