How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Burnley or Draw 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Watford and 1.2 from Burnley, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Burnley or Draw. This covers Burnley or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Burnley have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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