What to expect
We expect about 0.7 goals from West Brom and 1.3 from Burnley, so Burnley come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
West Brom come into this on two straight wins. Burnley come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Correct score 0-1. This is our most likely exact scoreline for the game (xG 0.6-1.3). Correct score is a long shot by nature, so treat it as a small-stakes punt rather than a banker.
We put the chance of that landing at about 20 out of 100. The price on offer is 7.70, which works out at about 13 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Correct score is unforgiving: the right winner but the wrong number still loses. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 20%.
