What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from West Ham and 1.5 from Derby, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 61%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. We make it about 61%: a lean, not a lock.
