What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from West Ham and 1.4 from Southampton, so West Ham come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
West Ham come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Southampton to score. This is about Southampton's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
West Ham have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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