Deportes Concepción v Unión La Calera: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Deportes Concepción or Draw 78%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.4 goals from Deportes Concepción and 0.8 from Unión La Calera, so Deportes Concepción come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Deportes Concepción come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Deportes Concepción or Draw. This covers Deportes Concepción or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.